Redfin Reports 6% of Today’s Home Sellers Are at Risk of Selling at a Loss

This is up from 4.4% a year ago, but still historically low. The risk of selling at a loss varies significantly in different parts of the country; nearly 20% of sellers are at risk of losing money in San Francisco, compared to virtually 0% of sellers in Providence, RI.

(NASDAQ: RDFN) — Nearly 6% of today’s U.S. home sellers are at risk of selling for less than their purchase price—up from 4.4% a year ago, but still well below pre-pandemic levels—according to a new report from Redfin (www.redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.

The story is different in different parts of the country. Virtually zero sellers in Providence, RI, for instance, are at risk of selling their home at a loss. But in San Francisco, nearly 20% of sellers are at risk. The story also differs by home type; condos are much more likely to be at risk of selling at a loss than single-family homes or townhouses.

This is according to a Redfin analysis of active listings on the MLS in May, in which Redfin predicts how much a home is likely to sell for based on the sale-to-list price ratio of the metro area where it is located.

Note that Redfin’s analysis identifies the share of sellers at risk of selling at a loss if they go through with a sale in today’s market. It does not predict the share of sellers who will actually sell their home at a loss. Many would-be sellers facing a financial loss will simply wait until they find a buyer willing to pay the asking price, while others may take their home off the market and continue to live in it, or rent it out.

The share of sellers at risk of losing money is historically low

In the early 2010s, following the global financial crisis, roughly half of for-sale homes were at risk of selling at a loss. Even prior to the pandemic, in early 2020, around 10% of for-sale homes were at risk of selling for less than their purchase price.

Redfin Senior Economist Asad Khan said the relatively small share of sellers facing a loss today is good news for buyers.

“We are seeing more opportunities for buyers to pay a little less than they would have just a year or two ago. That’s because sellers with significant equity in their homes—and therefore at no risk of selling at a loss—are more willing to be flexible on price,” he said. “That’s a meaningful shift for anyone who’s been watching and waiting for prices to come down, especially first-time homebuyers.”

1 in 6 home sellers who bought after the pandemic are at risk of losing money

Zooming in on recent homebuyers, nearly one in six (16.4%) of today’s sellers who bought their home post-pandemic are at risk of selling for less than their purchase price.

For comparison, 9% of today’s sellers who bought their home during the pandemic are at risk of selling at a loss, and just 1.8% of sellers who bought before the pandemic are at risk.

“The longer someone has owned their home, the more likely they are to come out ahead, but that’s little comfort for those who bought more recently and may be facing a loss,” said Khan. “Not every homeowner is listing because they want to—some are listing because they have to. In those cases, it’s important to list at a realistic price for the market and be prepared to adjust depending on buyer interest.”

Sellers who bought their home after the pandemic make up a sizable share of today’s sellers: 16.3% of the U.S. home listings currently on the market were purchased after July 2022.

Homes that were purchased after the pandemic are more likely to sell at a loss—if they were to sell now—for two main reasons:

• Sellers who bought post-pandemic paid high prices: Intense competition and record-low mortgage rates created a buying frenzy just after the pandemic began. Bidding wars were common, and many homes sold for well above list price, a surge in demand that pushed home values to unprecedented highs by mid-2022.
• Prices are now softening: After peaking in mid-2022, prices have stabilized in much of the country as mortgage rates climbed and demand slowed. While some markets have remained resilient, others have seen values slip from their highs, particularly in the Sun Belt region where demand spiked highest during the pandemic.

“Current sellers who bought their home after mid-2022 may have overextended themselves, thinking that prices were going to keep rising at similar rates,” said Khan. “Prices have kept ticking up since then, but at a slower pace—and now prices have started to fall in some parts of the country, especially in the Sun Belt. That means sellers are in a position where they may need to choose between accepting a lower price, or taking the home off the market.”

Redfin agents in some parts of the country report that some sellers who don’t need to move immediately have already opted to de-list their home.

“A lot of sellers are taking their home off the market rather than reducing their price, with the idea of listing it again next year,” said Aditi Jain, a Redfin Premier agent in Boston. “They’re not motivated by making money the way they would have been two or three years ago because there’s not as much money to make. Another trend with sellers: They’re accepting offers instantly. If they get one solid offer, they’re signing the contract, canceling other tours and open houses, and trying to close the deal as soon as possible.”

Condos significantly more likely to sell at a loss than other home types

More than one in four (28.7%) for-sale condos bought after the pandemic surge are at risk of selling at a loss, the highest share among the different home types. Overall, nearly one in 10 (9.9%) for-sale condos are at risk of selling at a loss.

“We are seeing the biggest price drops in the condo market,” said Denver Redfin Premier agent Andy Potarf. “I had a seller who bought a condo for $570,000 in 2021 and it just sold for $525,000 last week. Sellers who have to sell are willing to take a bigger hit to get the deal done.”

Potarf added that condo sellers are in a particularly tough position because many face restrictions—from HOAs or local authorities—on how they can lease their properties.

“A lot of condo sellers have a choice to make: stay put, or take a loss,” he said.

In comparison, 4.4% of active single family listings are at risk of selling at a loss, including 12.9% of homes bought after the pandemic and 7.9% of those bought during the pandemic.

If prices fall by 1%, the share of homes at risk of selling at a loss will increase

The section above analyzes the risk of homes selling at a loss under current market conditions. Redfin is forecasting that U.S. home prices will fall 1% year over year by the end of 2025 because there are significantly more sellers than buyers in the market.

If prices do fall by 1%, as expected, the overall share of homes at risk of selling at a loss will increase to 6.4%. If prices fall by 3%, the share will increase to 8.1%. In the unlikely event prices fall by 5%, the share of homes at risk of selling at a loss will increase to 10.1%.

Those who bought prior to the pandemic face minimal risk of selling at a loss, even if prices do fall by 5%.

It’s important to remember that this analysis examines homes that were on the market in May, and that sellers could pull back if prices fall significantly.

Metro-Level Highlights (May 2025)

Top 50 most populous U.S. Metros

• Overall: Nearly one in five (19.6%) for-sale homes in San Francisco are at risk of selling for less than which they were purchased, the highest share among major metros. San Francisco’s for-sale condos are particularly at risk of selling at a loss (see section below). California’s Bay Area saw a notable slump during the pandemic when remote work enabled residents to move elsewhere, following a decade of rapid growth driven by the tech boom. While the market has now stabilized, San Francisco still has a higher share of homes that were bought for more than they are likely to sell for. Next comes Austin, TX (13.8%) and another Bay Area metro Oakland, CA (11%). Providence, RI (0.5%), New Brunswick, NJ (0.5%) and Anaheim, CA (1%) are the three major metros with the lowest share of homes at risk of selling for a loss.
• Single-family homes: 13.2% of for-sale single-family homes in Austin are at risk of selling at a loss—the highest share among major metros, followed by San Antonio (10.2%) and St. Louis (10%). The lowest shares were recorded in East Coast metros: Providence (0.5%), New Brunswick (0.5%) and Boston (0.6%).
• Condos: More than a third (35.6%) of for-sale San Francisco condos are at risk of selling at a loss. That’s more than ten percentage points higher than the next two major metros on the list: Portland (24.8%) and Oakland (23.2%). For-sale condos are least likely to sell at a loss in New Brunswick (0.4%), Milwaukee (1.1%) and Providence (1.3%).

To view the full report, including charts, full metro data and methodology, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/selling-at-a-loss-2025

About Redfin

Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, rentals, lending, and title insurance services. We run the country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our customers can save thousands in fees while working with a top agent. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers more than $1.8 billion in commissions. We serve approximately 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000 people.

Redfin’s subsidiaries and affiliated brands include: Bay Equity Home Loans®, Rent.™, Apartment Guide®, Title Forward® and WalkScore®.

For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com. To view Redfin's press center, click here.

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