Redfin Reports Pending Home Sales Slide, But There Are Bright Spots: Buyers Have Bargaining Power, Starter-Home Sales Improving

October 02, 2025 at 08:00 AM EDT

Pending U.S. home sales fell 1% year over year as mortgage rates ticked up after nine straight weeks of declines. Some would-be buyers are hesitant due to economic uncertainty, including jitters about potential layoffs and the government shutdown.

Pending U.S. home sales fell roughly 1% from a year earlier during the four weeks ending September 28, the biggest decline in nearly five months, according to a new report from Redfin, the real estate brokerage powered by Rocket. On a local level, pending sales fell in 30 of the 50 largest U.S. metro areas, led by Houston (-15.4% year over year), Denver (-12.3%) and Las Vegas (-11.2%).

There are several reasons would-be homebuyers are backing off:

High home prices. The median home-sale price rose 2.5% year over year, the biggest increase in six months.
Mortgage rates have reversed course, started rising again. The weekly average mortgage rate ticked up to 6.3% from 6.26%, a small increase but the first after nine straight weeks of declines. Rising rates are exacerbating rising sale prices; the median monthly housing payment is $2,590, up about $40 from early September’s 9-month low.
Supply surplus is dissipating. The total number of homes for sale is up 8.4%, the smallest increase since the start of 2024, as growth in new listings slows from the spring and the pool of inventory slowly gets bought up.
Widespread economic uncertainty. Some would-be buyers are holding off due to recession nerves, concerns about potential layoffs, and jitters about the federal government shutdown, which started on Tuesday night.

But there are a few bright spots in the housing market:

Sales of starter homes, those whose sale prices fall into the 5th-35th percentile, increased 4% in August, even as demand for higher-priced homes stumbled.
Buyers have negotiating power, with half a million more sellers than buyers in today’s housing market.
The ADP private-sector job report, which markets are relying on because the shutdown means there's currently no government jobs data, shows that the labor market was fairly weak in September. That should push mortgage rates down slightly unless we subsequently get jobs data that contradicts the ADP report.

“For buyers, there are deals to be made,” said Jason Gale, a Redfin Premier agent in New Orleans. “People who need to move are still out there house hunting, and they’re finding that it’s a good time to negotiate with sellers, especially for homes that have been on the market for longer than a few weeks. Most buyers are able to get a discount on the price or significant help with their closing costs.”

For Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, please visit Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page.

Leading indicators
Indicators of homebuying demand and activity
	Value (if applicable)	Recent change	Year-over-year change	Source
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate	6.37% (Oct. 1)	Up from 12-month low of 6.13% two weeks earlier	Up from 6.2%	Mortgage News Daily
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate	6.3% (week ending Sept. 25)	Up from 6.26% a week earlier, the first increase after 9 weeks of decreases	Up from 6.08%	Freddie Mac
Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted)		Down 1% from a week earlier (as of week ending Sept. 26)	Up 16%	Mortgage Bankers Association
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index		Essentially unchanged from a month earlier (as of week ending Sept. 28)	Down 14%	A measure of tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents
Google searches of “homes for sale”		Unchanged from a month earlier (as of Sept. 28)	Up 25%	Google Trends
Touring activity		Up 18% from the start of the year (as of Sept. 28)	At this time last year, it was up 3% from the start of 2024	ShowingTime

Key housing-market data
U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending Sept. 28, 2025 Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas and are based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision.
	Four weeks ending Sept. 28, 2025	Year-over-year change	Notes
Median sale price	$390,845	2.5%	Biggest increase in 6 months
Median asking price	$403,975	2%
Median monthly mortgage payment	$2,590 at a 6.3% mortgage rate	3.5%	Up $37 from August’s 9-month low
Pending sales	78,023	-0.9%	Biggest decline in nearly 5 months
New listings	91,387	2.5%
Active listings	1,206,271	8.4%	Smallest increase since Feb. 2024
Months of supply	4.8	+0.4 pts.	4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions
Share of homes off market in two weeks	31%	Down from 32%
Median days on market	47	+7 days
Share of homes sold above list price	23.6%	Down from 27%
Average sale-to-list price ratio	98.4%	Down from 98.9%

Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending Sept. 28, 2025 Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy.
	Metros with biggest year-over-year increases	Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases	Notes
Median sale price	Detroit (8.6%) Pittsburgh (7.8%) Warren, MI (7%) Cleveland (7%) Providence, RI (6%)	San Francisco (-2.3%) Austin, TX (-2%) Atlanta (-1.7%) Newark, NJ (-1.1%) Sacramento, CA (-0.7%)	Declined in 11 metros
Pending sales	San Francisco (16.1%) West Palm Beach, FL (8.9%) Riverside, CA (8%) Cleveland (7.6%) Chicago (6.7%)	Houston (-15.4%) Denver (-12.3%) Las Vegas (-11.2%) Seattle (-9.7%) San Antonio (-8.4%)
New listings	Pittsburgh (13.1%) Washington, D.C. (10.9%) Montgomery County, PA (10.7%) Detroit (10.1%) Baltimore (9.9%)	San Antonio (-12.2%) Orlando, FL (-11.6%) Anaheim, CA (-11.2%) Miami (-10%) Fort Lauderdale, FL (-9.6%)

To view the full report, including charts, please visit:

https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-prospective-homebuyers-back-away

About Redfin

Redfin is a technology-driven real estate company with the country's most-visited real estate brokerage website. As part of Rocket Companies (NYSE: RKT), Redfin is creating an integrated homeownership platform from search to close to make the dream of homeownership more affordable and accessible for everyone. Redfin’s clients can see homes first with on-demand tours, easily apply for a home loan with Rocket Mortgage, and save thousands in fees while working with a top local agent.

You can find more information about Redfin and get the latest housing market data and research at Redfin.com/news. For more information about Rocket Companies, visit RocketCompanies.com.