Jack in the Box’s third quarter was defined by significant operational adjustments as management responded to continued pressures on sales and profitability. Despite a year-on-year decline in revenue and margins, the market responded positively to the results, reflecting management’s swift actions to address underperforming value propositions and promotional strategies. CEO Lance Tucker described the quarter as “a story of two halves,” with early softness followed by improved transactions due to new value-focused offers and menu pricing changes. Management acknowledged ongoing competitive intensity and the need for better consistency in operations and guest experience.
Is now the time to buy JACK? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
Jack in the Box (JACK) Q3 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $326.2 million vs analyst estimates of $318.3 million (6.6% year-on-year decline, 2.5% beat)
- Adjusted EPS: $0.30 vs analyst expectations of $0.47 (36.3% miss)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $45.6 million vs analyst estimates of $46.95 million (14% margin, 2.9% miss)
- EBITDA guidance for the upcoming financial year 2026 is $232.5 million at the midpoint, below analyst estimates of $262.4 million
- Operating Margin: 7.4%, down from 14.6% in the same quarter last year
- Locations: 2,712 at quarter end, down from 2,785 in the same quarter last year
- Same-Store Sales fell 6.8% year on year (-2.4% in the same quarter last year)
- Market Capitalization: $367.7 million
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Jack in the Box’s Q3 Earnings Call
- Brian Bittner (Oppenheimer) asked about the drivers of expected same-store sales recovery and the shape of the recovery in 2026. CEO Lance Tucker pointed to menu innovation, barbell strategy, tech modernization, and softer year-over-year comparisons, with improvement expected to build over the year.
- Alex Slagle (Jefferies) inquired about the return on incremental marketing spend and future plans for similar investments. Tucker explained that improved transactions and greater demographic reach were achieved, while suggesting large marketing contributions would be situational rather than recurring.
- Sarah Senatore (Bank of America) probed the macroeconomic assumptions underlying guidance and SG&A run rates post-divestiture. Tucker clarified the outlook assumes a flat macro backdrop, with no tailwinds, and CFO Dawn Hooper explained that SG&A would trend lower in the second half after restructuring.
- Jeffrey Bernstein (Barclays) questioned franchisee sentiment and willingness to invest amid profitability pressures. Tucker acknowledged pointed but respectful discussions, highlighting that most franchisees remain supportive of the Jack on Track plan and future reimage efforts.
- Gregory Francfort (Guggenheim) asked about the rationale for smaller-scale remodels and the potential for equity raises. Tucker ruled out equity issuance, emphasizing the need for both affordable mini-refresh options and larger remodels as franchisee finances recover.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
Looking ahead, our analyst team will be monitoring (1) the pace and impact of the Del Taco divestiture and associated organizational restructuring, (2) early signs of same-store sales recovery as value and innovation initiatives take hold, and (3) operational improvements from the field support overhaul and reimage program. Progress on debt reduction and franchisee engagement will also be key indicators of long-term momentum.
Jack in the Box currently trades at $19.28, up from $14.38 just before the earnings. At this price, is it a buy or sell? See for yourself in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
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