What Happened?
Shares of industrial processing equipment and solutions provider Hillenbrand (NYSE: HI) fell 3.8% in the afternoon session after investor concerns grew over a weak revenue forecast from analysts.
According to four analysts covering the company, revenue is expected to contract by 14% over the next year. This forecast presents a stark contrast to the broader industry, which is projected to grow by 2.6%. The downbeat outlook raises questions about the stock's current valuation, as shrinking revenues could make it difficult to sustain its price over the long term. This disappointing projection appears to be weighing on investor sentiment, contributing to the stock's decline.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
Hillenbrand’s shares are very volatile and have had 27 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 25 days ago when the stock dropped 3.3% on the news that an unexpectedly sharp rise in wholesale inflation fueled concerns about rising costs and their impact on corporate profits. The primary catalyst was the July 2025 Producer Price Index (PPI), a measure of inflation at the wholesale level, which jumped 0.9% against forecasts of a 0.2% rise. This represents the most significant monthly increase in over three years, pointing to mounting cost pressures for manufacturers, with tariffs cited as a key factor. This data complicates the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decisions, as persistent inflation may prevent rate cuts, creating a headwind for cyclical sectors like Industrials.
Hillenbrand is down 16.6% since the beginning of the year, and at $25.40 per share, it is trading 28.1% below its 52-week high of $35.33 from January 2025. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Hillenbrand’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $838.46.
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