What Happened?
Shares of freight transportation and logistics provider Saia (NASDAQ: SAIA) fell 3.9% in the afternoon session after Evercore ISI Group lowered its price target on the stock, though it maintained its "Outperform" rating. Analyst Jonathan Chappell cut the price target to $328 from $345, marking a nearly 5% reduction. This decision followed a period of weaker performance for the less-than-truckload transportation company. Saia had previously reported underwhelming sales. The company also faced challenges with profitability in some of its recently acquired markets, which did not perform as well as its legacy business. Furthermore, management had expressed concern about macroeconomic uncertainty affecting future shipping volumes.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
Saia’s shares are very volatile and have had 21 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The biggest move we wrote about over the last year was 5 months ago when the stock dropped 34.8% on the news that the company reported weak first-quarter 2025 results, with its revenue and EBITDA both falling short of analysts' estimates, reflecting a tough start to the year. The real story was the sharp sales and profit declines, driven by weather-related disruptions, and weaker-than-expected March shipments. While revenue ticked up 4%, that modest gain masked deeper issues: growth in tonnage and shipments was undermined by a drop in revenue per unit, especially when excluding fuel surcharges, which fell more than 5%. The lack of typical seasonal acceleration in March also weighed heavily on performance. Overall, this was a softer quarter.
Saia is down 34.9% since the beginning of the year, and at $289.74 per share, it is trading 49.1% below its 52-week high of $569.08 from November 2024. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Saia’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $2,267.
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