• External theft, including organized retail crime, is the largest single source of loss at 25%, but three-quarters of loss dollars occur elsewhere
• All sources of loss tracked in the study are on the rise, with more than half (54%) of retailers reporting an increase in each area

A new IHL Group and Sensormatic Solutions joint study shows how complicated retail shrink really is and why leaders need to begin redefining loss within their operations. IHL Group’s Beyond Shrink: 2026 Global Total Retail Loss Study found that while external theft remains the largest individual source of loss (25%), the bulk of losses (75%) originates in other areas of the retail business. The study examined five key areas of the business where retailers experience loss—store theft, supply chain, returns/reverse logistics, e-commerce fulfillment and administration—challenging retailers to look beyond the traditional front-door view of shrink and understand loss as a connected, enterprise-wide issue.

“Investments in digital data collection and analytics systems have fundamentally changed retailers’ understanding of loss within their stores and supply chains,” said Greg Buzek, founder and president of IHL Group. “The impact of external theft and shoplifting, including organized retail crime (ORC), is real, and it is rising globally—but it’s not where the majority of loss dollars actually go. The report identifies and quantifies this gap with new clarity, laying bare how outdated benchmarks and measures turn into tunnel vision, gaps in deterrents and lost opportunities. It’s a Total Retail Loss study rather than another shrink report.”

A new loss framework
The study’s findings highlight the ways in which precise, connected data is expanding retailers’ understanding of shrink and changing how leaders approach loss prevention. The data shows that:

• Internal losses aren’t always intentional. Retailers report that administrative process errors cost an average of $103.40 per incident, nearly matching the $107.00 average cost of employee theft.
• Returns remain a significant blind spot. Return fraud increased for 68% of retailers, nearly matching the 69% reporting increased shoplifting in their retail locations. Even so, retailers rank fraud prevention fifth among seven when prioritizing loss-related performance measures.
• Supply chain losses add up fast. Supplier fraud, warehouse/sales-area shrink and goods-receiving loss together account for 33% of retailers’ total losses.
• ORC is growing globally. Australia reported the highest rate of ORC growth in the study, with 80% of retailers reporting increases, while 71% of U.S. retailers and 67% of Spanish retailers also reported rising ORC activity, reinforcing that ORC is now an international challenge.
• Scale changes exposure. External theft and ORC account for 26% of total loss among retailers generating $1 billion+ in revenue; for retailers with revenue under $250 million, it drops to 17%. A similar gap surfaces in shoplifting frequency, with 71% of the largest retailers surveyed seeing increased shoplifting, compared with just 28% of the smallest retailers.
• Investment levels are associated with different loss outcomes. The average loss prevention budget reported in the study is about 1.2% of sales, and retailers reporting spending above 2% of sales were the only cohort in the study to report more declines than increases across loss vectors.
• Traffic insights are linked to better loss outcomes. Retailers that align staffing and monitoring to traffic patterns report better loss outcomes, with 91% citing peak traffic periods and 89% citing event-driven crowd surges as key drivers of loss.

“For years, the industry has understandably focused on the most visible forms of retail loss, but what’s readily visible doesn’t always provide a full picture,” said Tony D’Onofrio, president of Sensormatic Solutions. “This research shows that loss is moving across the enterprise into supply chains, returns, digital commerce and operational processes. The opportunity now is to use data, technology and a broader view of the business to understand where losses really occur, respond accordingly, and make retail better.”

For a comprehensive look at the findings and their implications for retailers worldwide, download the full Beyond Shrink: The 2026 Global Total Retail Loss Study here: https://www.ihlservices.com/product/beyond-shrink-2026-global-total-retail-loss-wp102026/

About the report
The Beyond Shrink: The 2026 Global Total Retail Loss Study is based on the input of 915 retail decision-makers across regions. Only participants whose responses passed quality checks were included in the analysis; results are weighted by company revenue to reflect actual industry demographics, and percentages are calibrated against retail sales and point-of-sale data by country and region. All figures are self-reported by participants and are reported only in aggregate.

About Johnson Controls
Johnson Controls, a global leader in thermal management, mission-critical building systems, energy efficiency, and decarbonization, helps customers use energy more productively, reduce carbon emissions, and operate with the precision and resilience required in rapidly expanding industries such as data centers, healthcare, pharmaceuticals, advanced manufacturing, and higher education.

For more than 140 years, Johnson Controls has delivered performance where it really matters. Backed by advanced technology, lifecycle services and an industry-leading field organization, we elevate customer performance, turn goals into real-world results and help move society forward.

Visit johnsoncontrols.com for more information and follow @Johnsoncontrols on social platforms.

About Sensormatic Solutions
Sensormatic Solutions, the leading global retail solutions portfolio of Johnson Controls, powers safe, secure and seamless retail experiences. For more than 60 years, the brand has been at the forefront of the industry’s fast-moving technology adoption, redefining retail operations on a global scale and turning insights into actions. Sensormatic Solutions delivers an interconnected ecosystem of loss prevention, inventory intelligence and traffic insight solutions, along with our services and partners to enable retailers worldwide to innovate and elevate with precision, connecting data-driven outcomes that shape retail’s future. Please visit Sensormatic Solutions or follow us on LinkedIn and our YouTube channel.

About IHL Group
IHL Group is a global research and advisory firm specializing in technologies for the retail and hospitality industries. For over 25 years, IHL has provided market sizing, technology benchmarking and strategic advisory services to the world’s leading retailers and technology vendors. IHL’s Sophia database tracks more than 500,000 technology installations across 6,000-plus retailers in 300-plus categories, providing deployment data at a level of detail unmatched in the industry. IHL’s core products include REAP enterprise research subscriptions, WorldView forecasting models and ClearSight AI readiness assessments, giving clients a quantitative foundation for technology investment decisions. For more information, visit www.ihlservices.com.

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