Triple-I: 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast to be ‘Very Active’

A very active tropical cyclone season is projected for 2024 in the Atlantic basin, according to a forecast released today by Colorado State University’s (CSU) Department of Atmospheric Science.

Led by senior research scientist Phil Klotzbach, Ph.D., also a non-resident scholar at the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I), the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project forecasts 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes during the 2024 season, which starts on June 1 and continues through Nov. 30. A typical Atlantic season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

The 2023 season produced 20 named storms and seven hurricanes. Three reached major hurricane intensity. Major hurricanes are defined as those with wind speeds reaching Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

One hurricane and two tropical storms made continental U.S. landfalls last year. Category 3 Hurricane Idalia struck Florida’s Big Bend region near Keaton Beach on Aug. 30 with wind speeds of 115 mph. It was the third hurricane, and second major hurricane, to make a Florida landfall over the past two seasons. Idalia caused storm surge inundation of 7 to 12 feet and widespread flooding in Florida and throughout the Southeast.

Other named storms that made U.S. landfalls in 2023 included Tropical Storm Harold, which made landfall near South Padre Island, Texas, on Aug. 22; and Tropical Storm Ophelia, which made landfall near Emerald Isle, N.C., on Sept. 23.

“The widespread damage incurred from Idalia last year highlighted the importance of being financially protected from catastrophic losses and that includes having adequate levels of property insurance and flood coverage. Beyond Florida, we saw significant impacts from Idalia in southern Georgia and the Carolinas. All it takes is one storm to make it an active season for you and your family, so it is time to prepare as the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season’s start nears,” said Sean Kevelighan, CEO, Triple-I.

Kevelighan added, “This is an ideal time for homeowners and business owners to review their policies with an insurance professional to ensure they have the right amount and types of coverage, allowing them to be financially protected for property damage caused by either wind or water. That also means exploring whether they need flood coverage, which is not part of a standard homeowners, condo, renters or business insurance policy. Additionally, homeowners can make their residences more resilient to windstorms and torrential rain by installing roof tie-downs and a good drainage system.”

Flood policies are offered through FEMA’s National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and dozens of private insurers. The installation of a wind-rated garage door and storm shutters also boost a home’s resilience to a hurricane’s damaging winds, according to the Triple-I, and can potentially generate savings on a homeowner’s insurance premium.

Private-passenger vehicles damaged or destroyed by either wind or flooding are covered under the optional comprehensive portion of an auto insurance policy.

Triple-I offers numerous hurricane season preparedness tips. These include:

• Developing a photo/video inventory of your possessions and your home’s exterior, which will ease the claims-filing process.
• Preparing a hurricane emergency kit with a minimum two-week supply of essential items, such as drinking water, non-perishable food, medications, flashlights, and extra batteries.
• Creating an evacuation plan well before any storm warnings are issued.

“We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean this season,” Klotzbach said.

Klotzbach added, “Current El Niño conditions are likely to transition to La Niña conditions this summer/fall, leading to hurricane-favorable wind shear conditions. Sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic are currently at record warm levels and are anticipated to remain well above average for the upcoming hurricane season. A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification. Our forecast is of above-normal confidence for an early April outlook.”

CSU’s 2024 forecast calls for a 62% percent chance of a major hurricane making a mainland U.S. landfall (average from 1880 to 2020 is 43%), 34% for the U.S. East Coast including the Florida Peninsula (versus 21% historical average), and 42% percent for the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas (versus 27% historical average).

FACTS & STATISTICS

Hurricanes

Flood Insurance

TRIPLE-I ISSUES BRIEFS

Hurricanes: State of the Risk

Flood: State of the Risk

CONSUMER RESOURCES

Catastrophes: Insurance Issues

Hurricane Season Insurance Checklist

How to Prepare for Hurricane Season

Hurricane Season Insurance Guide

Hurricane and Windstorm Deductibles

Understanding Your Insurance Deductible

Preparing an Effective Evacuation Plan

Settling Insurance Claims After a Disaster

Spotlight on Flood Insurance

Facts About Flood Insurance

Recovering from a Flood

INFOGRAPHICS

What are Hurricane Deductibles?

How to Prepare for Hurricane Season

How to File a Flood Insurance Claim

Is Your Business Ready for Peak Hurricane Season?

EXTERNAL RESOURCES

FEMA’s National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)

NFIP Information for Insurance Agents

RELATED VIDEOS

Dr. Klotzbach Discusses 2024 Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast

Hurricane Insurance Guide

Insurance Check-Up: Homeowners and Hurricane/Flood Insurance

Create a Home Inventory

About the Insurance Information Institute

With more than 50 insurance company members — including regional, super-regional, national, and global carriers — the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I) is the #1 online source for insurance information in the U.S. The organization’s website, blog and social media channels offer a wealth of data-driven research studies, white papers, videos, articles, infographics and other resources solely dedicated to explaining insurance and enhancing knowledge.

Unlike other sources, Triple-I’s sole focus is creating and disseminating information to empower consumers. It neither lobbies nor sells insurance. Triple-I offers objective, fact-based information about insurance – information that is rooted in economic and actuarial soundness. Triple-I is affiliated with The Institutes Risk and Insurance Knowledge Group.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240404055204/en/

"All it takes is one storm to make it an active #hurricane season for you and your family, so it is time to prepare as the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season’s start nears." @III_SeanK