Vontier has had an impressive run over the past six months as its shares have beaten the S&P 500 by 17.3%. The stock now trades at $43.38, marking a 33% gain. This was partly thanks to its solid quarterly results, and the performance may have investors wondering how to approach the situation.

Is there a buying opportunity in Vontier, or does it present a risk to your portfolio? Get the full stock story straight from our expert analysts, it’s free.

Why Do We Think Vontier Will Underperform?

We’re happy investors have made money, but we don't have much confidence in Vontier. Here are three reasons we avoid VNT and a stock we'd rather own.

1. Core Business Falling Behind as Demand Plateaus

In addition to reported revenue, organic revenue is a useful data point for analyzing Internet of Things companies. This metric gives visibility into Vontier’s core business because it excludes one-time events such as mergers, acquisitions, and divestitures along with foreign currency fluctuations - non-fundamental factors that can manipulate the income statement.

Over the last two years, Vontier failed to grow its organic revenue. This performance was underwhelming and implies it may need to improve its products, pricing, or go-to-market strategy. It also suggests Vontier might have to lean into acquisitions to accelerate growth, which isn’t ideal because M&A can be expensive and risky (integrations often disrupt focus).

2. Free Cash Flow Margin Dropping

If you’ve followed StockStory for a while, you know we emphasize free cash flow. Why, you ask? We believe that in the end, cash is king, and you can’t use accounting profits to pay the bills.

As you can see below, Vontier’s margin dropped by 7 percentage points over the last five years. It may have ticked higher more recently, but shareholders are likely hoping for its margin to at least revert to its historical level. If the longer-term trend returns, it could signal increasing investment needs and capital intensity. Vontier’s free cash flow margin for the trailing 12 months was 14%.

3. New Investments Fail to Bear Fruit as ROIC Declines

A company’s ROIC, or return on invested capital, shows how much operating profit it makes compared to the money it has raised (debt and equity).

We like to invest in businesses with high returns, but the trend in a company’s ROIC is what often surprises the market and moves the stock price. Over the last few years, Vontier’s ROIC has unfortunately decreased. We like what management has done in the past, but its declining returns are perhaps a symptom of fewer profitable growth opportunities.

Final Judgment

We see the value of companies helping their customers, but in the case of Vontier, we’re out. With its shares beating the market recently, the stock trades at 13.3× forward P/E (or $43.38 per share). While this valuation is reasonable, we don’t see a big opportunity at the moment. There are superior stocks to buy right now. Let us point you toward one of our all-time favorite software stocks.

Stocks We Would Buy Instead of Vontier

Donald Trump’s April 2025 "Liberation Day" tariffs sent markets into a tailspin, but stocks have since rebounded strongly, proving that knee-jerk reactions often create the best buying opportunities.

The smart money is already positioning for the next leg up. Don’t miss out on the recovery - check out our Top 5 Growth Stocks for this month. This is a curated list of our High Quality stocks that have generated a market-beating return of 183% over the last five years (as of March 31st 2025).

Stocks that made our list in 2020 include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+1,545% between March 2020 and March 2025) as well as under-the-radar businesses like the once-small-cap company Exlservice (+354% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today.

StockStory is growing and hiring equity analyst and marketing roles. Are you a 0 to 1 builder passionate about the markets and AI? See the open roles here.