General Mills’ third quarter performance aligned with Wall Street’s revenue expectations, with adjusted profit surpassing consensus. Management emphasized that the notable year-over-year sales decline reflected both continued softness in sales volumes and the impact of portfolio changes, including the divestiture of the U.S. yogurt business. CEO Jeffrey Harmening highlighted, “We strengthened our pound share in 8 of our top 10 categories,” attributing this to targeted price and product investments, but acknowledged that certain categories, such as baking and cereal, continue to lag and require further improvement.
Is now the time to buy GIS? Find out in our full research report (it’s free).
General Mills (GIS) Q3 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $4.52 billion vs analyst estimates of $4.51 billion (6.8% year-on-year decline, in line)
- Adjusted EPS: $0.86 vs analyst estimates of $0.82 (5.4% beat)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $849.9 million vs analyst estimates of $818.8 million (18.8% margin, 3.8% beat)
- Operating Margin: 38.2%, up from 17.2% in the same quarter last year
- Organic Revenue fell 3% year on year vs analyst estimates of 2.8% declines (18.4 basis point miss)
- Sales Volumes fell 8% year on year (0% in the same quarter last year)
- Market Capitalization: $26.97 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From General Mills’s Q3 Earnings Call
- Andrew Lazar (Barclays) asked if the current volume softness is structural or cyclical; CEO Jeffrey Harmening replied that most drivers are within management’s control and that targeted pricing and innovation should restore volume over time.
- Robert Moskow (TD Cowen) questioned why reported volume declined despite share gains in top categories; Group President Dana McNabb explained that declines in flour and desserts, which are more volume-heavy, offset gains elsewhere, and noted shipment timing headwinds in pet.
- Leah Jordan (Goldman Sachs) inquired about the slowdown in the Wilderness pet food line and outlook for pet treats; McNabb said Wilderness will receive new product and marketing investment, and treats saw some positive volume growth.
- Matthew Smith (Stifel) sought detail on gross margin performance and the impact of timing benefits; CFO Kofi Bruce clarified that temporary factors, such as lighter inflation and international trade expense timing, aided margins this quarter but will reverse in the next.
- Alexia Howard (Bernstein) asked about reformulation efforts and adaptation to new state-level regulations; Harmening emphasized the company’s proactive removal of artificial dyes and a preference for consistent federal standards to avoid operational complexity.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In coming quarters, our team will watch (1) execution of price adjustments and the impact on volume trends, (2) the scale and commercial success of new product launches, especially in protein-forward and pet categories, and (3) the company’s ability to sustain operating margin improvements as inflation and regulatory costs evolve. Progress on innovation and category performance will be key signals of momentum.
General Mills currently trades at $50.51, up from $49.61 just before the earnings. At this price, is it a buy or sell? The answer lies in our full research report (it’s free).
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