Guardant Health’s 28.8% return over the past six months has outpaced the S&P 500 by 13.3%, and its stock price has climbed to $60.20 per share. This was partly due to its solid quarterly results, and the performance may have investors wondering how to approach the situation.
Is there a buying opportunity in Guardant Health, or does it present a risk to your portfolio? Dive into our full research report to see our analyst team’s opinion, it’s free.
Why Is Guardant Health Not Exciting?
Despite the momentum, we're sitting this one out for now. Here are three reasons you should be careful with GH and a stock we'd rather own.
1. EPS Trending Down
We track the long-term change in earnings per share (EPS) because it highlights whether a company’s growth is profitable.
Guardant Health’s earnings losses deepened over the last five years as its EPS dropped 19.6% annually. We’ll keep a close eye on the company as diminishing earnings could imply changing secular trends and preferences.
2. Cash Burn Ignites Concerns
If you’ve followed StockStory for a while, you know we emphasize free cash flow. Why, you ask? We believe that in the end, cash is king, and you can’t use accounting profits to pay the bills.
Guardant Health’s demanding reinvestments have drained its resources over the last five years, putting it in a pinch and limiting its ability to return capital to investors. Its free cash flow margin averaged negative 55.6%, meaning it lit $55.58 of cash on fire for every $100 in revenue.
3. Short Cash Runway Exposes Shareholders to Potential Dilution
As long-term investors, the risk we care about most is the permanent loss of capital, which can happen when a company goes bankrupt or raises money from a disadvantaged position. This is separate from short-term stock price volatility, something we are much less bothered by.
Guardant Health burned through $271.7 million of cash over the last year, and its $1.43 billion of debt exceeds the $629.1 million of cash on its balance sheet. This is a deal breaker for us because indebted loss-making companies spell trouble.
Unless the Guardant Health’s fundamentals change quickly, it might find itself in a position where it must raise capital from investors to continue operating. Whether that would be favorable is unclear because dilution is a headwind for shareholder returns.
We remain cautious of Guardant Health until it generates consistent free cash flow or any of its announced financing plans materialize on its balance sheet.
Final Judgment
Guardant Health isn’t a terrible business, but it isn’t one of our picks. With its shares outperforming the market lately, the stock trades at $60.20 per share (or a forward price-to-sales ratio of 7.3×). The market typically values companies like Guardant Health based on their anticipated profits for the next 12 months, but it expects the business to lose money. We also think the upside isn’t great compared to the potential downside here - there are more exciting stocks to buy. We’d suggest looking at one of our top software and edge computing picks.
Stocks We Like More Than Guardant Health
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