What Happened?
Shares of digital engagement platform ON24 (NYSE: ONTF) jumped 4.2% in the afternoon session after the broader market rallied as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled that interest rate cuts could be on the horizon. The positive sentiment swept across U.S. markets following comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that signaled interest rate cuts could be on the horizon. His remarks led to a widespread rally, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite all posting significant gains. The upward move in ON24's shares appears to be tied to this market-wide optimism rather than any company-specific news, as the consensus rating from Wall Street analysts remains a 'Hold'.
After the initial pop the shares cooled down to $5.48, up 4% from previous close.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
ON24’s shares are not very volatile and have only had 7 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful, although it might not be something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 9 days ago when the stock gained 3.6% on the news that the SaaS sector continued to rally as favorable inflation data bolstered hopes for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. This optimism was largely driven by a benign July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which solidified investor expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. Following the release of the inflation data, which showed a year-over-year increase of 2.7%, the probability of a rate cut in September surged to over 96%. Lower interest rates are typically beneficial for growth-oriented technology stocks, as they can reduce borrowing costs and increase the present value of future earnings. Adding to the positive sentiment was a 90-day delay in the imposition of higher tariffs on Chinese goods, which reduced trade-related uncertainty for the technology sector.
ON24 is down 15.7% since the beginning of the year, and at $5.48 per share, it is trading 21.8% below its 52-week high of $7.01 from February 2025. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of ON24’s shares at the IPO in February 2021 would now be looking at an investment worth $77.38.
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