What Happened?
Shares of global car rental company Hertz (NASDAQ: HTZ) fell 3.4% in the afternoon session after bellwether United Parcel Service (UPS) reported weak earnings and withheld its full-year guidance, citing “macro-economic uncertainty” and low consumer sentiment.
The logistics giant reported a decline in revenue and missed profit estimates, sending a chill through the entire logistics chain. UPS pointed to a challenging economic environment and near-historic lows in U.S. consumer confidence as key factors for its performance. By withholding its full-year forecast, the company signaled significant uncertainty ahead, confirming fears of a broader economic slowdown that could impact demand for shipping and freight services. This news weighed on other ground and rail transportation stocks, as investors worried that the headwinds affecting UPS could be a sign of wider issues across the industry.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
Hertz’s shares are extremely volatile and have had 70 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The biggest move we wrote about over the last year was 3 months ago when the stock gained 57.9% on the news that reports revealed that Bill Ackman's Pershing Square had an even bigger stake in the company a day after the hedge fund acquired $46.5m of the company's stock. Notably, CNBC reported that Pershing Square's total position was about 19.8%, including shares and swaps, making it the company's second-largest shareholder.
Hertz is up 78.6% since the beginning of the year, but at $6.66 per share, it is still trading 23% below its 52-week high of $8.65 from April 2025. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Hertz’s shares at the IPO in June 2021 would now be looking at an investment worth $246.81.
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