Trinity Life Sciences’ AI Algorithm Accurately Predicts Revenue Outcomes for Over 90% of U.S. Drug Launches Far Exceeding Wall Street Analyst Attempts

“Predicting Winners: AI-Powered Portfolio Management” White Paper Now Available

Trinity Life Sciences, the leader in strategy, insights and analytics for the life sciences industry, introduced its artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm which accurately predicted revenue outcomes for over 90% of U.S. drug launches, far exceeding the accuracy of Wall Street analyst consensus at the time of launch (<60%). Trinity’s latest white paper in its Industry Impact Series, titled Predicting Winners: AI-Powered Portfolio Management, explores the use of AI to improve portfolio decision-making in the life sciences industry.

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Trinity Life Sciences' AI algorithm accurately predicts revenue outcomes for more than 90% of U.S. drug launches. As shown in the chart, this accuracy far exceeds Wall Street analyst consensus. (Photo: Trinity Life Sciences)

Trinity’s AI algorithm incorporates both publicly available and Trinity-proprietary data from its Annual Drug Index on more than 250 U.S. drug launches since 2014. The dataset is enriched with over 20 variables related to product information, indication characteristics, competitive dynamics and manufacturer information. Trinity’s AI algorithm identifies the clusters and relative importance of the variables which are most predictive of potential five-year blockbuster status.

Trinity conducted a retrospective analysis to compare drug revenues predicted by its AI algorithm to reported cumulative five-year U.S. revenues. Of the 67 drugs achieving >$1.5B in cumulative U.S. sales in the first five years of launch, Trinity’s AI algorithm accurately predicted 63 of the outcomes. Additionally, of the 113 drugs which achieved <$750M in cumulative U.S. sales in the first five years of launch, Trinity accurately predicted 108 of the outcomes. To contextualize the accuracy of the algorithm, results were compared to the five-year Wall Street analyst consensus U.S. forecast at time of launch. In aggregate, analysts were able to accurately estimate commercial performance in 56% of drug launches compared to >90% using Trinity’s AI algorithm.

Trinity is currently implementing the AI algorithm for various use cases within the life sciences industry, including identifying quick kill opportunities and potential blockbusters in portfolio management, improving clinical stage gates for late-stage assets and prioritizing targets for business development & licensing purposes. Companies can identify not only the predictors of commercial success but also those drugs likely to experience considerable difficulties in broad adoption.

“Embracing the potential of AI in portfolio management, Trinity is paving the way for smarter, more informed commercialization decisions in the life sciences industry,” said Leslie Orne, President and CEO of Trinity Life Sciences. “Our AI algorithm empowers companies to optimize investments and deliver innovation and value to patients with greater precision than ever before.”

Trinity’s Predicting Winners white paper is a follow-on to the first entry in its Industry Impact Series. The first white paper, Picking Winners: Portfolio Management for a New Era, discusses the organizational challenges life sciences companies face in selecting the right therapies to advance into the clinic and the market.

Life sciences executives are welcome to download the Predicting Winners: AI-Powered Portfolio Management white paper by clicking here and the Picking Winners: Portfolio Management for a New Era white paper by clicking here.

Members of the media can contact Michele Wlodarczyk for the white papers at mwlodarczyk@trinitylifesciences.com.

About Trinity Life Sciences

With almost 30 years of expertise, a best-in-the-business team and unrivaled access to data and analytics, Trinity Life Sciences is a modern partner to companies in the life sciences industry. Trinity combines strategy, insights and analytics to help life science executives with clinical and commercial decision-making. Ultimately, we know that every decision our clients make impacts a life, and when we help our clients achieve their goals, the world benefits. To learn more about how Trinity is elevating the industry and driving evidence to action, visit TrinityLifeSciences.com.

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