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New research finds the global tungsten supply gap outside China could reach 16,000 tonnes by 2030 — even if every announced mining project arrives on schedule

LONDON, United Kingdom, September 1, 2026 – TheNewswire — Anthony Milewski, founder of The Oregon Group, has published new research warning that the global tungsten market faces a structural supply challenge that higher prices alone will not solve — with significant implications for Western defense, advanced manufacturing, and semiconductor supply chains.

The full analysis, Tungsten Price Shock Signals Deeper Supply Crisis, is available now at The Oregon Group.

Key Findings:

• Tungsten prices increased approximately 310% between January and July 2026, with the APT CIF benchmark rising from approximately US$83/kg WO₃ to US$340/kg WO₃ — one of the sharpest commodity price moves of the year 

• China produced 67,000 of the 85,000 tonnes of tungsten mined globally in 2025, representing approximately 79% of world mine production, and controls roughly 85% of global APT refining capacity 

• 11 announced mining projects could add nearly 20,000 tonnes of annual tungsten capacity outside China by 2030 — but even if every project arrives on schedule, an estimated 16,000-tonne ex-China primary supply gap remains 

• Accessible tungsten mines outside China are projected to satisfy only approximately 68% of projected ex-China primary demand by 2030 

• From January 1, 2027, US defense procurement rules will generally prohibit acquisition of tungsten materials mined, refined or produced in China, Russia, North Korea or Iran — effectively creating two distinct tungsten markets 

"Tungsten is sending an unusually strong price signal, but the supply response is still constrained," said Anthony Milewski, founder of The Oregon Group. "The issue is no longer whether tungsten prices are high enough to justify new mines. The issue is whether those mines can be financed, permitted, built, commissioned and qualified quickly enough to meet Western demand."

Price Has Cleared the Economic Hurdle — Not the Financing Hurdle

One of the most significant findings in The Oregon Group's research is that tungsten prices have already exceeded the theoretical level required to incentivize virtually all proposed supply in the current project pipeline.

S&P Global estimates that US$36–48/kg WO₃ would support more than 85% of accessible current and proposed supply, and a structural cost of approximately US$90/kg would support every project in the modelled pipeline. At US$340/kg, the economics are not the constraint.

The constraint is time and capital. Mines require financing, permitting, construction, commissioning and customer qualification. Large mining projects can take 16 to 30 years from discovery to production. Financiers evaluate projects against conservative long-term price assumptions, not exceptional spot prices.

This is why government investment, long-term offtake agreements and critical-mineral price-support mechanisms are becoming increasingly important to Western tungsten supply development.

The 2027 US Defense Deadline

The supply challenge is becoming more urgent.

The United States has not mined tungsten commercially since 2015 and remained more than 50% reliant on imports in 2025. From January 1, 2027, US defense procurement rules will generally prohibit the acquisition of tungsten metal powder, tungsten heavy alloy and covered components where the material was mined, refined, separated, melted or produced in China, Russia, North Korea or Iran.

A July 2026 executive order also directed defense officials to stop granting routine waivers from January 2027 unless contractors provide an accepted mitigation plan and demonstrate exhaustive efforts to secure compliant supply.

The result is a market increasingly divided between tungsten that satisfies US defense sourcing requirements and tungsten that does not — adding further pressure to an already constrained ex-China supply chain.

"The significance of tungsten is not determined by the size of the market," Milewski said. "It is determined by what stops working when secure tungsten supply is unavailable. Defense, advanced manufacturing, semiconductors and energy infrastructure all depend on materials with properties that are extremely difficult to replace."

Projects That Could Deliver New Tungsten Supply

Projects being advanced outside China include Sangdong in South Korea (Almonty began processing stockpiled ore in June 2026), Hemerdon in the United Kingdom (Tungsten West targeting full commissioning in Q1 2027), Mt Carbine in Australia, Northern Katpar and Upper Kairakty in Kazakhstan, Mactung in Canada (supported by a US$15.8 million Department of Defense award), and Pilot Mountain in the United States (supported by a US$6.2 million Defense Production Act award).

Even in an unrisked scenario where all projects deliver on schedule, the ex-China primary supply gap by 2030 remains approximately 16,000 tonnes.

Tungsten as a Warning for Critical Mineral Markets

The Oregon Group's research identifies the tungsten market as a broader lesson for governments, investors and companies working to secure critical mineral supply chains.

Commodity prices can adjust almost instantaneously to shortages. Physical supply chains cannot.

"Tungsten does not lack a price signal," Milewski said. "It lacks enough financed, permitted and qualified production linked to secure refining and recycling capacity. That distinction is going to become increasingly important across critical minerals."

The full research, Tungsten Price Shock Signals Deeper Supply Crisis, is available at The Oregon Group.

About The Oregon Group

The Oregon Group is an investment research and media platform focused on critical minerals, energy, geopolitics, artificial intelligence infrastructure, and global supply chains. The firm publishes institutional-grade analysis on the commodities and technologies shaping the future global economy. Research is available at theoregongroup.com.

About Anthony Milewski

Anthony Milewski is the founder of The Oregon Group and a recognized authority on critical minerals, mining, geopolitics, and the global energy transition. Milewski has written extensively on strategic commodities, supply chain security, and resource nationalism, and is a frequent commentator on tungsten, cobalt, nickel, rare earths, and the geopolitics of critical mineral supply chains. His analysis reaches institutional investors, policymakers, and industry participants globally through The Oregon Group's research platform at theoregongroup.com.

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SOURCE The Oregon Group

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