The builder and developer says rising inventory and higher mortgage rates are pushing the coast toward a more balanced market, where quality and pricing will decide which homes sell.
-- New Jersey builder and developer Michael Grunbaum, founder of Starck Builders, LLC, has published a review of the New Jersey Shore housing market for 2026, along with his outlook for 2027. His conclusion is that the coast is leaving behind the conditions of the pandemic years. After several years of rising prices, tight inventory and fierce competition among buyers, he sees a market that is slowly finding its balance.
"The Jersey Shore housing market is entering a new phase," Grunbaum writes. "Looking ahead to 2027, location, construction quality, property condition, and realistic pricing will likely determine which homes outperform."
The review focuses on Monmouth and Ocean Counties, where buyers now have more homes to choose from and more time to decide. Grunbaum cites figures showing Ocean County with roughly 480 more active listings than a year earlier and Monmouth County with more than 200 more. In some segments of the regional market, homes are taking close to 55 days to sell.
That shift has not hit every town equally. Grunbaum points to Spring Lake, Sea Girt, Manasquan, Ocean Grove and Monmouth Beach as communities that continue to hold up, helped by limited land, beach access, established neighborhoods and steady demand for both primary residences and vacation homes.
He cautions against treating those towns as a single market. Oceanfront homes, properties within walking distance of the beach, inland neighborhoods and older houses that need major work can follow very different pricing trends, even within the same town.
The biggest change from previous years, according to the review, is buyer behavior. Buyers are becoming more selective. Homes with strong architecture, updated interiors and good locations still draw interest, while overpriced listings and properties that need substantial renovation may sit longer.
Financing has become the market's main obstacle in the second half of the year. According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 7.32% on October 22, 2026, up from 6.19% a year earlier. Grunbaum notes that higher borrowing costs are cutting into purchasing power, particularly for buyers financing homes between $750,000 and $1.5 million. Cash buyers and owners with substantial equity may hold an advantage in the most sought-after shore towns.
For 2027, Grunbaum expects one trend in particular to continue: older coastal homes being replaced with larger, more modern houses. He sees updated and newly built homes with timeless coastal architecture, practical floor plans, energy-efficient systems and quality materials as the properties most likely to stay competitive.
That opportunity comes with costs that builders and investors cannot ignore. The review lists land acquisition, flood-zone requirements, insurance, permitting, labor and premium materials as expenses that can quickly erode a project's profit. "For builders and investors, opportunities remain attractive, but careful budgeting is essential," Grunbaum writes.
Buyers are also looking more closely at how homes are built. According to the review, floor plans, durable exterior materials, quality windows, efficient HVAC systems and low-maintenance finishes are increasingly what set one property apart from another. It is a theme Grunbaum has returned to on his blog, including a 2025 post on how construction quality affects property values in New Jersey.
Grunbaum also sees room for renovation where an older home can be substantially improved without the cost and complications of a full teardown.
Taken together, the review describes a coast moving toward a more traditional market. Higher inventory gives buyers more flexibility, but Grunbaum expects the long-term appeal of the best coastal communities to hold.
"For 2027, the greatest opportunities are likely to favor well-located properties, thoughtfully designed new construction, strategic renovations, and realistic pricing," he writes.
His closing advice is aimed at homeowners, builders and investors alike. "Success will depend less on rapid market appreciation and more on making sound decisions about acquisition costs, construction budgets, and the quality of the finished property," Grunbaum writes.
Michael Grunbaum is a builder, developer and contractor with more than 30 years of experience, and the founder and owner of Starck Builders, LLC. He has a background in civil engineering, has worked across residential and commercial construction, and earned his general contractor's license in 1996. He writes about real estate development, custom home building and construction on the official website.
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