The latest BoA Global Manager Survey is a dramatic illustration of market anxiety. In July, 18% of respondents believed that a U.S. recession was the biggest tail risk. That figure surged to 39% in the August survey, which was taken August 2–8 right at the height of the market panic.
During the market panic, the market went from pricing in a soft landing to rising odds of a hard landing. About two weeks later, the consensus has shifted back to a soft landing, which should be friendly to risk assets.
