4,132.
That's where we started the week so all we have to do is not drop 40 points on the S&P today and, AT LEAST, we can claim a positive week – short and low-volume though it may have been. 4,160 is, of course, our weak bounce line for the S&P and failing to hold that for the week will be BAD – but I'd settle for a week that's not down at this point.
It's a wild-card as we have Non-Farm Payroll at 8:30 this morning and other reports we've seen indicates the Economy is slowing so probably less jobs are being created. It was 428,000 last time and slowing from that pace would actually be good but below 200,000 might be scary – 300,000 would be the sweet spot. From the Productivity Report yesterday, it seems labor costs are rising fast and, if NFP confirms that – it could spook people out of stocks ahead of the inevitable margin squeeze that comes from rising labor costs.
Even as I write this (7:30 am), the S&P is back at 4,147 – dangerously below the Weak Bounce line (see yesterday's chart). In fact, as a refresher, it's been a while since we posted the Bounce Chart so let's remind ourselves how dire our situation has been this past month:
- Dow 36,000 to 28,800 would be a 7,200-point drop with 1,440 bounces to 30,240 (weak) and 31,680 (strong).
- S&P 4,800 is 20% above 4,000 and that makes it an 800-point drop with 160-point bounces so 4,160 (weak) and 4,320 (strong).
- Nasdaq is using 13,500 as the base. 14,100 is the weak bounce and 14,700 is strong.
- Russell 1,600, would be about an 800-point drop with 160-point bounces to 1,760 (weak) and 1,920 (strong)
That's a lot of red and the Dow doesn't count for much as it's an idiotic, price-weighted index and, keep in mind, these are our 20% retracement lines – except the Russell, which is a 33% retracement – as it blew through 20% (1,920) early on, so we lowered our expectations (and we expected small caps to be more adversely affected by the macro conditions). …
