Non-Farm Payrolls are out at 8:30.
Expections are that 500,000 new jobs were added in March and remember, that's extra-impressive since our population hasn't grown at all since 2020 and, usually, we need 150,000 a month just to cover 2M new Americans each year. So 500,000 new jobs with no population growth means LOTS of people are getting paid and, with minimium wages rising as well (we will also get Wages Reports), it means US Consumers have much more money to spend.
Personal Income was up 0.5% for Feb but, unfortunately, PCE Inflation was up 0.6% – so wages are not keeping up with inflation and that's scary, which is why Personal Spending was only up 0.2% – as consumers are starting to cut back and reject these higher prices. A pullback like that is a Recession and Recessions make people sad and prolonged sadness about their economic situation can lead to DEPRESSION, which is where that term comes from – it's an attitude as much as a monetary crisis – people just don't want to spend anymore.
But we're not there yet, not by a long shot because there are lots of jobs and people whose wages aren't keeping up with inflation at their current job have, so far, had a pretty easy time of quitting that job and getting a better one – hence the "Great Resignation" we find ourselves in the middle of. Believe me, it's a lot better than a Great Depression – so have fun finding better-paying jobs, folks!
As you can see from the chart, Income is not keeping up with spending so, eventually, spending has to be cut back and keep in mind these spending levels were stimuluted in the past two years by stimulus but it's been a whole year since Biden gave us $1.9Tn in the "American Rescue Plan", which was $1,400 per person so about 5% of the average family's wages last year but it was also 10% of our ENTIRE GDP as stimulus – in a year GDP growth was 5.7% so -4.3% without the stimulus.
That's because, in 2020, the US Economy SHRANK by 3.4% and two years of shrinkage is, essentially, a Depression and the Government…
