What is a fish flop?
That's where you have a fish that are still alive on the deck of your boat and it's gasping and flopping – but soon to be dead. That is not the same as a flip-flop – in which the markets reverse direction. This is not that, this is much more like only bouncing around because death is creeping quickly towards them and they are trying to escape. Get the picture?
Amazon (AMZN) had strong earnings yesterday and the Nasdaq is up 116.25 pre-market but, on the whole, it's really nothing and that's why we have our Bounce Chart – so we are reminded of the true scale of the destruction. We should probably have one for Global Warming so people will stop thinking the problem is solved every time we get a snow storm. For our indexes, we have:
- Dow 36,000 to 34,200 has bounce lines of 34,560 (weak) and 34,920 (strong)
- S&P 4,700 to 4,465 has bounce lines of 4,512 (weak) and 4,559 (strong)
- Nasdaq 16,500 to 15,675 has bounce lines of 15,840 (weak) and 16,005 (strong)
- Russell 2,400 to 2,080 has bounce lines of 2,144 (weak) and 2,208 (strong)
This was our stronger bounce chart and we are just one bad turn on the unreliable Dow away from falling back into our weaker chart, which would indicate we are likely on a path to revisit our recent market lows (and more likely to surpass them) in Februrary – which is what we expected would happen after this stronger-than-expected bounce series of the past week.
- Dow 36,000 to 28,800 would be a 7,200-point drop with 1,440 bounces to 30,240 (weak) and 31,680 (strong). We were below our predicted 33,120 mid-point at yesterday's lows.
- S&P 4,800 is 20% above 4,000 and that makes it an 800-point drop with 160-point bounces so 4,160 (weak) and 4,320 (strong) is where we are this morning (again).
- Nasdaq is using 13,500 as the base and we bottomed yesterday at 13,706. 14,100 is the weak bounce and 14,700 is strong.
- Russell 1,600, would be about an 800-point drop with 160-point bounces to 1,780 (weak) and 1,960 (strong).
Nothing should be red on this chart if we are recovering. These are the bounces off PROJECTED lows – we haven't even hit those lows yet, so failing the bounce lines of those lows is NO BUENO!
IN PROGRESS
