July 21, 2026, ST. PETERSBURG, FL – Water Tower Research (www.watertowerresearch.com) has published an Initiation of Coverage Report on Clinch Resources Ltd. (TSX: CLCH) titled, “Brownfield Met Coal Platform Ramping into a Structurally Undersupplied Market”. The report can be accessed here.
Clinch Resources Ltd. (CLCH) offers investors pure-play exposure to a structurally undersupplied met coal market, driven by contracting seaborne supply and rising steel demand from emerging markets and energy transition infrastructure. The company is a West Virginia met coal producer entering its production ramp, with fully permitted assets, an operational wash plant, and rail loadout. Met coal is a chemical feedstock, not a fuel, serving as the carbon backbone of global steel production, with no viable substitute at scale.
The flagship ARI Project spans ~54,000 acres across Logan, Mingo, and Wyoming counties, supported by an operational 600-tph preparation plant and a Norfolk Southern rail loadout at Gilbert, West Virginia, with direct access to the largest US coal export terminal.
Clinch’s leadership team brings a proven track record of prior successful public company exits in Central Appalachian coal, along with 15 years assembling the company’s current asset base through bankruptcies and down-cycle acquisitions. Combined with deep specialty carbon relationships, this domain expertise forms a durable competitive advantage that is difficult to replicate in today's permitting and capital environment.
The combined effect of volume growth and high-quality product mix drives cash EBITDA to ~US$203 million (2027), US$213 million (2028), and US$222 million (2029). We forecast net income growing from $27 million (2026) to US$206 million in 2029 inclusive of the 39% owned JJ Resources. Against this backdrop, Clinch currently trades at a P/E of 1.5x (2027) and 1.5x (2028), compared with its simple average peer group P/E multiples of 51.2x (2027) and 12.4x (2028). Clinch trades on our estimated 8.2x EV/EBITDA (2026) although with the benefit of only 0.5 million short tons of production, compared with the peer group’s EV/EBITDA of 11.2x (2026). With our forecast strong FCF likely to further strengthen Clinch’s net cash position, this would point to a further discounted EV/EBITDA multiple in 2027.
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